Despite all the doom and gloom about Tournament chances (including from yours truly), Illinois (15-8, 5-5) just made it through January with a .500 record in conference play for the first time in John Groce’s tenure. But Illinois is through the weakest part of its schedule now, and staring at a slate of Michigan State-Michigan-Wisconsin-Michigan State-Iowa over the next 19 days.
As it stands, the team will start this odyssey with Rayvonte Rice and Aaron Cosby still riding the pine. In his Friday press conference, Groce said the duo were going full contact in practice but still indefinitely suspended, he also declined to offer any details about whether they may play on Saturday in East Lansing. (There’s a conspiracy theory that would suggest Groce would lift the suspension, regardless of the reason it was given, this weekend because the Illini are facing tougher opposition. All NCAA-related conspiracy theories carry a 50% chance of being true, but I am doubtful of this one.)
Going to Michigan State this weekend would be an opportune time to bring back the suspended duo, but Illinois has fared alright in their absence, and Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn may have actually gotten better. Illinois is 5-3 over that span, Hill is averaging 17.3 and Nunn is averaging 16.4 points per game, which means Illinois might continue to do well in the duo’s continued absence.
Michigan State (15-7, 6-3), however, is a deep, tough team. Branden Dawson is a match-up nightmare, Travis Trice is an assist machine, and Denzel Valentine is heating up in a frightening way. Plus, this is still Tom Izzo’s team, and any Izzo-coached team is a deadly team.
The most dangerous aspect of the Spartans’ game is their rebounding. They are 8th nationally on defensive boards and 12th on offensive boards. If Illinois’s shots aren’t falling and MSU keeps Illinois from getting second chances, it will be a long 40 minutes for the Illini.
Unfortunately, that’s how I see the game going for Illinois. One of the shooters might find a groove, but it will take two or three hot hands to fend off MSU in East Lansing. But the game tips at noon, so it’s perfectly reasonable to start drinking in the first half.
My prediction: Michigan State 75 – Illinois 60.