Seth Fein was born in Urbana and now lives in downtown Champaign. He owns and operates The Nicodemus Agency, is the founder and curator of Pygmalion Music Festival, and is an assistant talent buyer at The Canopy Club. He loves the Purdue Boilermakers and his wife's marinara sauce.
I tend to not flout my ability as a college basketball prognosticator. After all, this is really my first year as a sports writer, let alone as a fan-turned-journalist who predicts the outcome of Big Ten games. Thus far, I’ve been trying to report the facts of the games and some of the history, mainly recent, that has been the driving force behind who the teams are now.
Last week, however, was an exception.
In addition to going perfect in my predictions — I am proud to say that I picked that Purdue over Wisconsin game — I also made it clear that I didn’t think that Indiana and Kelvin Sampson have the real fire power to outlast teams that know how to defend against Eric Gordon and D.J. White. For the first time this year, I am honestly patting myself on the back.
Perhaps my moment of glory has something to do with my major disdain for college basketball coaches who cheat. Maybe it has to do with the fact that I have very little respect for players like Eric Gordon, who de-commit to schools after definitively giving a verbal intent to sign. More than likely though, it has to do with the fact that I bleed Gold and Black — to the core — and that watching Indiana potentially go down, at home no less, to a future Hall of Fame coach/class act like Jim Calhoun and his suspended and depleted squad would be like Christmas all over again.
I quietly kept interjecting my opinion into the fold: Indiana is not as good as they appear on paper.
Sure enough, the Hoosiers didn’t have the stamina to outlast the feisty Huskies of Connecticut.
Not only did they not have the stamina, they also didn’t have these three 3 things that will prevent Indiana from reaching any level of real glory this season:
1. A weak bench does not create wins. No question: Indiana is deep. But their depth lacks talent. Every time Eric Gordon goes cold or D.J. White starts shuffling his feet, Sampson is forced to play sub-par second stringers who really aren’t much better than your average Northwestern starting five. This is fine against Georgia Tech at home — but against a Big East power house, it will come back to bite.
2. Kelvin Sampson has not learned how to teach effectively in the Big Ten. I am not sure what happened to Sampson since the time that he was taking the Sooners to the Dance each year, but it seems to me that his is hung up on teaching 1–3–1 motion offense in a league that clearly demands a different approach. Set plays are key for a team like Indiana — exploiting their strengths in Eric Gordon — but he doesn’t seem to be able to rein these talents in.
3. Eric Gordon will ultimately fail. This year. I think he is a great player. I think he is a great shooter. I think he knows how to penetrate the lane. I think that he doesn’t use his supporting cast to his benefit, and in the end, it will come back to bite them with a short run in the NCAA Tournament as a 4 seed in the West.
Let’s see what’s on tap for this week:
Season’s Record: 99–25
Last Week’s Record: 9–0
Big Ten Record: 31–7
TUESDAY, JANUARY 29
Ohio State 76
Penn State 64
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 30
Purdue 69
Iowa 63
Michigan State 75
Illinois 68
THURSDAY, JANUARY 31
Michigan 74
Minnesota 65
Wisconsin 78
Indiana 72
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1
Purdue 68
Illinois 66
Iowa 73
Ohio State 70
Michigan State 82
Penn State 66
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
Indiana 88
Northwestern 80
Wisconsin 77
Minnesota 74
Comments (5)
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 12:03 AM
Gotta give you props for your crystal ball. But, I also think you're off in your assessment of Indiana. (I can't believe I'm defending Indiana here...)
Re: their bench. I'm not going to look up the numbers cause it's bedtime and I'm lazy, but Jordan Crawford has to be the most offensively explosive 6th man in the Big Ten. He's averaging 11.5 points per game. True, he's been inconsistent as of late, but he's also had games where he dropped 20 on Kentucky, 13 on Illinois State, and 16 at Minnesota. Plus, IU has another nice weapon coming off the bench in senior A.J. Ratliff. Where the team is weak is bench big men (unless were counting WEIGHT, where DeAndre Thomas has everyone beat). However, so far the lack of quality big men off the bench hasn't been an issue because D.J. White has largely been able to stay out of foul trouble and on the court.
As far as whether the motion can work in Big Ten play -- isn't that what Matt Painter AND Bruce Weber run? Sure, they may have a different variation on the theme, but Weber has proven the motion to be effective in Big Ten play -- if you have the personnel to run it.
Finally, Eric Gordon has hit a dry spell lately. But he and D.J. White are the top two scorers in the Big Ten (in all games) in terms of points-per-shot: 1.69 for Gordon and 1.64 for White. The only other big-time, Big Ten scorer within sniffing distance in that metric is Raymar Morgan at 1.62. In other words, they are very effective at putting the ball in the hole and combine for a spectacular inside-outside combo. You mention Gordon's ability to get into the lane; that leads to fouls, which leads to easy points for a kid shooting 85% from the line.
Indiana has enough weapons at guard -- including Bassett, whom I didn't mention -- and a nice combo of glue guys in Ellis and Mike White to field a very balanced team. They may not win the Big Ten, but along with Michigan State they are our conference's best bet to make a deep tourney run. Keep in mind that Eric Gordon knows a LOT about tourney runs, as his Indy high school made a few while he was there. Yes, he lost the state title last year to your boy at Purdue (Moore), but he's got experience from battling some great teams in high school (like Oden and Conley's Lawrence North team 2-3 times per year). He's no spring chicken when it comes to pressure situations. I'd roll the dice with him and D.J. come mid March. Can they beat Memphis or UCLA or Kansas or North Carolina? On most nights, probably not. But that doesn't mean they can't make the Sweet 16, which by my definition is a pretty deep tourney run.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 8:51 AM
Doug - perhaps you haven't looked at their RPI/SOS? They haven't beaten anyone of much worth - and when they have played teams that were truly solid (i.e. UCONN and Xavier) - check out the way the bench played. Not well. Easy to put up numbers against teams with those kinds of records / SOS.
Jordan Crawford is an excellent 6th man - except for the fact that that for all intents and purposes - he IS a starter. He plays the 4th most minutes on the team - and shoot the ball more than Ellis. SO - I wouldn't go calling him out like a true bench player. 6th Men don't really exist in college basketball - unlike the NBA.
AJ Ratliff? Yikes dude. 1.7 ppg this season? And only played in 7 games? Not much of a threat as far as I can tell. Might change - but I don't think he's got it.
And the motion offense that Sampson is working with is different than Painter's or Weber's. Sampson works a 1-3-1 - which has different schematics than Painter's 4 out, 1 in and even just sometimes 5 out.
I am not saying that it can't work - I am just saying that it hasn't thus far - and that they aren't truly talented enough to make an honest run if they make that their game plan. With weapons like Gordon and White, set plays should be the primary focus. Thus far, their two tough games have been losses because they didn't have the plays to outsmart the other team. That says something to me.
But - we will see in the coming weeks, eh? Their next 6 games:
@ WIS
Northwestern
@ ILL (don't think there won't be blood)
WIS
MSU
PUR
If they go 5-1, I will retract my statement - but - I don't think there is any chance.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 8:55 AM
I meant - if they go 6-0, I will retract my statement. Not 5-1.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 10:56 AM
"AJ Ratliff? Yikes dude. 1.7 ppg this season? And only played in 7 games? Not much of a threat as far as I can tell. Might change - but I don't think he's got it."
Ratliff was either injured or ineligible (don't recall which) to start the season, which is why he hasn't appeared in as many games. He's a senior and a former regular -- displaced by Gordon -- who averaged nearly 10 points a game last year and shot 40% on threes. That's a nice option to have coming off the bench -- regardless of how many points-per-game he's averaging so far this year.
Re: the team's offense -- they're doing quite fine with their current system. Check the stats:
http://kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2008
They're not only the best offensive club in the B10, but among the best in the nation. They're leading the league in three-point shooting and free-throw shooting, and are second in field-goal shooting.
As for who they've beaten, I agree that their schedule is not as tough as others, but it's not total crap either. They have a tough schedule to finish out conference play, as you note, so we'll see how they do.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 11:07 AM
Again - I am going based on how they have performed come game time against teams with a decent RPI. Sure Illinois State's is decent - but - they are weak if you look at their overall performance. What impresses me, and this is just me - and probably Joe Lunardi as well - is how teams perform when they are TRULY challenged. So far, I haven't seen it from IU. Yes - let's see how they play down the stretch.