Quality Road is looking to avenge himself in the Grade I Woodward Stakes this Saturday at Saratoga, but there won’t be a rematch with the horse that beat him by a head. Instead, The Road is basically being handed the trophy as a line-up of relatively unknowns and one fallen from grace take on the giant in a 7-horse field. Poor Mine That Bird may just refuse in the gate once he gets a gander of the Titan that wholloped him in his last start, the Whitney Handicap, only a month ago; the 2009 Derby winner finished fifth in that epic battle to the wire, and was never involved in the slugfest down the stretch; he has a new jockey in Rajiv Maragh, but this is really The Road Show.
While the race is Quality Road’s to lose, its result will add more fuel to the fire over the discussion everyone in the world of horse racing is currently waging war over: at this stage in the game, who most deserves Horse of the Year?
There really was no doubt Rachel Alexandra would not be reprising her title as the Horse of the Year once she lost her second in as many starts this year to another female; this past Sunday, that notion was cemented in the filly’s crushing defeat in the Grade I Personal Ensign to Persistently. With the reigning Horse of the Year clearly out of the picture, that must open the door for the undefeated mare Zenyatta, right? Actually, the picture is much more complicated than that. If Zenyatta is really going to win the Eclipse for 2010 Horse of the Year, it may just be as a sort of lifetime achievement award, because there are a couple other horses out there who may actually deserve it more at this stage.
Had the Whitney’s outcome gone the other way, Quality Road would be sitting pretty as the front-runner for the HOTY. But his toppling by Blame in the rival’s second Grade I race of the year clearly showed there was not only a new handicap champ in town, but that this colt’s rising star was about to push his way into becoming one of the three nominees for the prestigious award. As of this article, Blame has only won three races in as many starts in 2010, but of those, two of them were historic Grade I races with challenging fields: The Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, and the Whitney; Blame’s warm-up for these big handicap events was the Grade III Shaefer Handicap at Pimlico. That puts Blame at running at three different tracks this year in three different states, with two non-restricted Grade I victories to his credit.
So far, Quality Road has run one more race in 2010 than Blame, and has run at three different tracks in two different states. His wins thus far are the Grade III Hal’s Hope, the Grade I Donn Handicap, and the Grade I Metropolitan Handicap; in his fourth start, he finished 2nd to Blame in the Grade I Whitney. If Quality Road were to win the Woodward, he would score more HOTY points by adding another historic Grade I stakes to his resume. But if Quality Road were to sit on his laurels until the Breeders’ Cup, he may lose his edge, as Blame looks to be shooting for the Jockey Club Gold Cup this fall, and would stand a great chance at taking that Grade I prize.
Though Blame, Quality Road, and Zenyatta are the obvious top three choices as Horse of the Year candidates, there are two more horses to consider before the year is done. What about the Lucks: Blind Luck and Lookin at Lucky? Though they are only 3-year-olds, both of them have impressive resumes in their own right this year, and a jump in class against older horses could spike their chances of overtaking one of the three top challengers for the Eclipse.
Blind Luck has run more times this year than any of the rest of the aforementioned horses; out of seven starts, the filly has won five times. In her losses, she finished 2nd and 3rd; she always puts in a gutsy performance, and never backs down from the competition. However, she has only run against her own sex at this point, which is a drawback if you’re campaigning for Horse of the Year. That being said, in 2010 she has run over six different tracks in five different states on two different surfaces. No horse can say that much, or will likely be able to boast that by the year’s end. Blind Luck has won three Grade Is so far: the Las Virgenes, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Alabama. If the filly were to win against males before Breeders’ Cup time, that would certainly boost her chances at cracking the top three; but Rachel Alexandra she is not, and would have to likely take on older males for her to be taken seriously.
Lookin at Lucky will likely be taking that plunge into uncharted waters very soon. At this point in the year, there’s not many places to go but into races against older males. With a record of three wins in five starts, having run at five different tracks in as many states, and over two different surfaces, Lookin at Lucky is this year’s hard-knockingest 3-year-old male. If you throw out the deplorable bumper-car chase that was the Kentucky Derby, Lucky has never been out of the money. When he’s not being thrown into the rail or checked badly, this colt never loses. In 2010, Lucky has racked up victories in the Grade II Rebel Stakes, the Grade I Preakness, and the Grade I Haskell. Though his next start could be in the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby, which boasts an enticing $1-million dollar purse, Lucky stands as a formidable opponent that could steal the show come Eclipse time should he be able to step it up come Breeders’ Cup time. Of course, like everyone else, he’s going to have go get through Zenyatta to get there.
Let’s face it, Zenyatta is perfect. She started her campaign earlier this year, and so far has run in Grade I races and won them all, highlighting the year by breaking the 16-race win streak set by Cigar and Citation for races not restricted to state-breds. But herein lies the drawbacks to Zenyatta’s spotless year; so far, the champ has only faced females and only raced outside of her home state once. That puts her at five wins at four tracks in two states, over two different surfaces—much better than last year at this point, but still, is it a strong enough campaign to deserve Horse of the Year? To clench this coveted Eclipse award, Zenyatta must win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Even if she does win it for a second year in a row, there will be many critics that she did not face males before the Breeders’ Cup, which she could easily do in the Jockey Club Gold Cup this fall, and against the best competition she’s faced since last year’s Breeders’ Cup.
The Vanity is not the Whitney, it’s as simple as that; the race does not hold the history and prestige, nor the level of competition. Though Zenyatta may be the best horse in racing right now, she hasn’t run against the second or even the fourth-best horses currently running this year. If she does so once, and wins, we will love her for it, but we should also feel ripped-off for not being able to see her run against the best all year-long. Like Blame. And Quality Road.